indian shares provisionally closed 1.9 percent higher today

• The 30-share BSE index provisionally ended up 1.86 percent or 355.75 points at 19,477.58, with 28 components gaining. Auto, IT and metal remained the prime gainers and banks also registered good gains.
• India’s exports surged to record high growth in fiscal year 2010/11, but uncertainty over the global economy and a ballooning import bill mean concerns persist over the trade deficit of one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
• Stock index futures pointed to a stronger open on Wall Street on Wednesday, with futures for the S&P 500 up 0.8 percent, Dow Jones futures up 0.5 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.8 percent at 0847 GMT.
• Upbeat earnings from companies including chip maker Intel lifted stocks and boosted appetite for riskier assets on Wednesday, driving commodities higher and the Australian dollar to a 29-year high versus the dollar.
• Brent crude rose above $122 a barrel on Wednesday, helped by a rebound in equities and a weaker dollar.
• Tokyo stocks snapped a three-day losing streak on Wednesday after Intel’s earnings guidance sparked short-covering in chip-related stocks, but trade is expected to stay thin ahead of forecasts from Japanese firms.
• Spot gold prices breached $1,500 for the first time and silver hit a 31-year high on Wednesday, supported by a weak dollar and concerns over a sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone.
• The euro and commodity currencies surged higher in thin trading conditions on Wednesday, as upbeat corporate earnings in the U.S. prompted investors to buy riskier assets amid rising growth expectations.
• U.S. oil rose on Tuesday in volatile trade as a weaker dollar and stronger equities lifted prices and offset concerns over sovereign debt and uncertain demand prospects.
• General Motors Co has a better grasp of how to handle disruptions in its global network of suppliers, said GM’s chief executive, who also reiterated the automaker’s outlook for vehicle sales this year.
• Yes Bank on Wednesday reported a 45 percent jump in January-March net profit to 2.03 billion rupees as compared to a net profit of 1.4 billion rupees over the same period last year.
• Global miner Rio Tinto said it has control over 72 percent of takeover target Riversdale after Brazil’s CSN accepted its offer.
• India should allow exports of wheat and rice as the country has huge grain stocks and global prices are favourable, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said on Wednesday.
• A top executive at Beijing Automotive Industry Holding Co (BAIC) said on Wednesday the Chinese state auto group was not currently in talks to invest in ailing Swedish car brand Saab, with which it shares some vehicle technology.
• Shares in DB Realty, Unitech and Reliance Communications fell on Wednesday, after a CBI court rejected bail applications of executives involved in the telecoms graft trial.
• Online travel firm Yatra Online Private Ltd said on Wednesday it received 2 billion rupees in funds from investors including Valiant Capital Management, Norwest Venture Partners and Intel Capital.

a volatile trade today at dalal street

• The Sensex closed at 19122, up 31 points from its previous close, and Nifty shut shop at 5741, up 12 points.
• The BSE Sensex eked out a 0.2 percent gain on Tuesday after falling for two consecutive sessions, but trading was volatile and the near-term outlook seemed subdued as investors shunned risk after rating agency Standard & Poor’s lowered its U.S. credit outlook to negative.
• State Bank of India, the country’s largest lender, said on Tuesday it will raise its benchmark lending rate, or base rate, by 25 basis points to 8.5 percent per annum with effect from April 25.
• The Indian government on Tuesday forecast normal rains for the 2011 monsoon, strengthening the prospect for a good farm output that could help bring relief to Asia’s third-largest economy in its battle with high food prices.
• Harley-Davidson Inc reported a wider quarterly profit on Tuesday on higher income from the company’s financial services division and a 3.5 percent increase in sales of new motorcycles.
• The government is risking losing control of inflation, leaving the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) with few tools other than the blunt instrument of more aggressive interest rate increases even as growth momentum slows.
• Falling gas output and a rising subsidy burden are expected to weigh on the respective outlooks of energy major Reliance Industries and explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp, taking the shine off their likely strong fourth-quarter earnings.
• The Indian rupee pulled back from a 2-1/2 week low touched earlier in the session due some dollar selling at higher levels.
• A German government adviser said on Tuesday that a restructuring of Greek debt was inevitable, raising pressure on Athens to seek a solution to the debt woes that are shaking investor confidence in the euro zone.
• India’s annual headline inflation in April could ease below 8 percent and 2011/12 economic growth should range between 8.75 and 9.25 percent, the chief economic adviser to the finance ministry said on Tuesday.
• Falling gas output and a rising subsidy burden are expected to weigh on the respective outlooks of energy major Reliance Industries and explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp, taking the shine off their likely strong fourth-quarter earnings.
• A renewed rise in Spanish debt yields is bad news for the euro zone, since it shows Spain is still failing to set itself apart from the zone’s weakest states in the eyes of the markets.
• Some of the United States’ biggest creditors moved to shore up confidence in its sovereign debt on Tuesday after Standard & Poor’s threatened to cut its credit rating on the world’s top economy, touching a nerve among big holders of Treasuries.
• Costly oil could place a major strain on consumer countries with fragile economies, OPEC ministers said on Monday, in their clearest statements yet that they believe fuel demand has shrunk.
• India, which has allowed exports of 500,000 tonnes of sugar following a bumper crop, has asked mills to register starting Tuesday, a source in the food ministry said.
• Foreign direct investment flowing into China rose 29.4 percent to $30.3 billion in the first three months of the year, data showed on Tuesday, as the country’s booming services sector pulled in more funds.
• China will tightly regulate land supply to boost affordable housing and to clamp down harder on illegal land use this year, the Ministry of Land and Resources said on Tuesday, as it seeks to contain housing inflation.
• India’s current account deficit for the last fiscal year that ended in March 2011 is expected to be less than 3 percent, Trade Secretary Rahul Khullar told reporters on Tuesday.

Central-bank strategies

• The Japanese yen has seen dramatic gyrations in its value since the earthquake and tsunami of March 11th. Immediate bets by speculators—or “sneaky thieves”, in the words of one Japanese official—that companies would have to repatriate funds to cover insurance payouts and reconstruction costs led its value to spike following the disaster. Concerned about the impact of a pricey currency on Japan’s post-disaster recovery, the central banks of the G7 countries flooded the market with more than $25 billion of the Japanese currency, sending the yen tumbling by nearly 3% in a single day. It kept on falling, breaching ¥85 to the dollar on April 6th.
• The yen is now being buffeted by opposing forces. When risk perceptions among investors rise—for instance, after the announcement on April 12th that the continuing nuclear crisis in Japan was being upgraded to the same level of seriousness as the Chernobyl disaster—upward pressure is applied to the yen. Analysts reckon that currencies like the yen and the Swiss franc, which are traditionally seen as havens in times of trouble, appreciate whenever investors believe that the environment is riskier. Gold, which hit a record nominal high on April 11th, is another beneficiary of this “flight to safety”.
• The yellow metal also benefits from fears that loose monetary policy and rising oil prices will unleash inflation. Such concerns, and the response to them by the world’s central banks, lie behind a second, downward source of pressure on the yen—the “carry trade”, in which investors borrow in low-yielding currencies to finance investments in higher-yielding ones.
• Many argue that the European Central Bank’s decision on April 7th to raise the policy rate in the euro area, and the prospect of further rises to come, has reinvigorated the carry trade. An interest-rate gap is opening between currencies like the dollar and the yen on the one hand, where monetary policy is likely to remain ultra-loose, and higher-yielding ones like the euro on the other. This gap may explain the strength of the euro, which has risen against the dollar in recent weeks despite endless euro-zone sovereign-debt worries.
• It also explains the sustained appreciation of the Australian dollar, which has strengthened markedly since the start of the year. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was among the first rich-world central banks to start raising interest rates after virtually all countries had slashed them during the crisis. Australia’s deep economic linkages to booming China via its commodity exports mean that the RBA is unlikely to reverse its policy stance in the near future.
• The Federal Reserve, too, is unlikely to change direction soon, which implies continued dollar weakness. The Fed’s daily index of the dollar’s value against major traded currencies fell to 69.92 on April 8th, the lowest level since May 23rd 2008. Its monthly index of the dollar’s value against major currencies fell in March for the fourth month in a row.
• For Americans concerned about their country’s export prospects, the depressed value of the greenback ought to be good news. In February, the most recent month for which trade data are available, the dollar was 4.5% cheaper in real terms than a year earlier. But although America’s trade deficit did fall in February, it was only because exports fell less steeply than imports. That month’s deficit was still $6 billion higher than a year earlier, when Barack Obama announced a plan to double exports in five years. Achieving that will take more than a cheap currency.

Sensex closed at 19091, losing 296 points

• Indian shares provisionally closed 1.5 percent lower on Monday led by losses in Infosys  and financial stocks, as worries over quarterly earnings and further interest rate increases dampened investor sentiment.
•  Selling pressure in the afternoon took its toll on the markets and forced both the benchmark indices to lose about 1.5% in a single trading session. IT along with interest rate sensitive sectors like realty, banking and capital goods remained the worst performers and auto and a few FMCG counters were only a few stocks that performed a bit better. Selling pressure primarily came from hedge funds and FIIs. The Sensex closed at 19091, down 296 points from its previous close, and Nifty shut shop at 5729, down 95 points. The CNX Midcap index was down 1.5% and the BSE smallcap  index was down 0.8%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 335 against declines of 965 on the NSE. The top Nifty gainers were HUL,Hero Honda, Bajaj Auto and ONGC and prime losers included DLF,HCL tech, Sesa goa and TCS.
•  The Indian rupee erased early gains to trade weaker on Monday afternoon as local shares turned negative and the euro fell sharply.At 2:39 p.m., the partially convertible rupee was at 44.3350/3400 per dollar, almost steady from Friday’s close of 44.3250/3350, but down from Monday’s high of 44.2550.
• World finance leaders must find a way to bring down debt while creating jobs and watching over their shoulders for the threat of inflation, the head of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said on Saturday.
•  China’s banking regulator will launch a thorough examination this year of loans extended over the past few years, and will tighten the issuance of banking licenses in response to global easing of liquidity, the Shanghai Securities News reported on Monday.
• China still has room to further tighten monetary policy, the official China Securities Journal said in a front-page editorial on Monday.
•  China and India reported higher-than-expected inflation readings on Friday, giving fresh ammunition to central bankers and investors alike who are worried about mounting price pressures in the global economy.
•  India’s food price index rose 8.28 percent and the fuel price index climbed 12.97 percent in the year to April 2, government data on Friday showed.
• The euro sank on Monday and European stocks fell into the red for the year as the rise of a euro-skeptic party in Finland and growing unease about Greek debt battered investor sentiment in the single currency zone.
• Brent crude oil fell $1 a barrel on Monday to below $123 after a cut in output from the world’s top exporter Saudi Arabia raised concern that high prices were hurting demand.
• Spot gold hit a record high and silver rose to a 31-year high on Monday, fueled by concerns of rising inflation globally, while a lingering euro zone sovereign debt crisis continued to boost safe-haven demand in precious metals.
• The euro extended its losses on Monday after repeated attempts to break above a resistance level failed yet again and on renewed worries about euro zone debt problems, giving the dollar a much needed reprieve after the recent sell-off.
• Europe’s debt crisis weighed on financial stocks on Monday, dragging Britain’s top share index lower, while analysts said short-term macro pressures present an attractive longer-term buying opportunities on the FTSE.
• General Motors Co plans to team up with its partners to introduce light commercial vehicles to India, the head of its international operations said on Monday.
• High oil prices represent a potentially major burden for importers with global economic recovery still fragile, leading OPEC ministers said on Monday.

India and foreign investment

• India’s  national monument, in New Delhi, is a tall, broad gate. That is ironic, for the country is hard for foreigners to enter, whether they be individuals trying to get a visa or businesses trying to invest.
• India’s inaccessibility is unfortunate because, to bridge the gap between its weak domestic saving and its high investment needs, it must import capital, especially foreign direct investment (FDI), the least flighty kind. Yet the latest figures are going in the wrong direction. Last year India got just $24 billion in FDI, down by almost a third on 2009. Globally, FDI was flat over the period.
• There are many reasons why foreign companies are put off India, from corruption and bureaucracy to the difficulty of obtaining land. These are problems that must be fixed for the sake of local, as well as international, businesses. But in too many areas foreign firms remain barred from entering the country altogether—railways and legal services, for instance—or are restricted to minority stakes—such as insurance and domestic airlines.
• Indian officialdom realises this must change and, at the pace of a Himalayan glacier, has been opening up. From this month, for instance, foreign firms are allowed into a wider range of agricultural businesses. But many other such reforms are stuck. Given the huge benefits that liberalisation could bring to India’s 1.2 billion people, the government should pluck up courage and fling wide the gates.
• India’s primitive and wasteful retail industry is the most glaring example of the need for foreign investment. The business is dominated by tiny mom-and-pop stores. The near-absence of big supermarket chains means there is no “chill chain” of transport and storage to keep fruit and vegetables fresh from field to shopping-basket. As a result, a quarter or more of such produce is wasted, a catastrophe in a country where so many go hungry. In more advanced retailing systems, less than a tenth is lost. Some big Indian firms are moving into the business, but what is needed is to lift the remaining restrictions on foreign ownership and let in international experts such as Walmart, Tesco and Carrefour.
• Retailing employs more than 30m Indians, so some fear social unrest if the admission of foreign chains puts small shops out of business. But given India’s rapid growth there is plenty of space for supermarkets to expand without killing small stores. Indeed, the tiddlers would be better off buying their supplies from foreign supermarkets than from the inefficient, costly middlemen they rely on now. In any case, such worries are greatly outweighed by the potential benefits to Indian consumers: lower prices and better quality, choice and nutrition. Economists in America talk about the beneficial “Walmart effect” that the ubiquitous cheap chain has had on curbing prices. Indians, as they fret over soaring food costs, might find such a thing a godsend.
• Given the success some Indian companies are now having on the world stage, India’s fear of foreign competition at home seems odd. It is time for the country’s politicians to sweep away such protectionism for good, and declare that India is as ready to take on the world in business as its World Cup-winning team is in cricket.

To make the financial system quite a bit safer

• The sinking of the Titanic led, in time, to a new wave of regulations covering safety at sea. The new rules, which included an edict that ships carry enough lifeboats to accommodate all those on board, struck such a sensible balance between safety and cost that they were soon widely adopted. Britain’s Independent Commission on Banking, chaired by Sir John Vickers, a former chief economist at the Bank of England, hopes to do the same with proposed rules that should make the financial system quite a bit safer, yet without imposing such onerous costs that its recommendations are laughed at all the way to the rubbish bin.
• The two main recommendations in the commission’s interim report, which was released, are that big British banks should hold a lot more equity capital against their assets and should rearrange themselves so that their retail banks can survive (or be plucked to safety) even if the rest of the bank hits a financial iceberg. The commission also wants to beef up the competition on the high street, signalling that Lloyds Banking Group in particular needs to divest more branches than is currently required under European Union rules.
• On capital, the commission reckons that the minimum that systemically important banks should set aside as buffers ought to rise to 10% from the 7% proposed by Basel III. Its reasoning seems to be based on a mixture of research and realism. The interim report argues that there is ample evidence showing that the new Basel standard (which itself is twice as high as before the financial crisis) is far too low, and that even 10% may not be quite enough. The commission seems to have settled on this number in the hope that it will not be so high as to be unceremoniously rejected, and proposes that the additional 3% becomes the new surcharge applied to big and systemically important institutions. There is perhaps hope that in Britain this could become the new standard for large banks. It seems unlikely, however, that the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, a huddle of central bankers and regulators, would agree to an equity surcharge this big as the new global standard. People close to the talks seem to think the number agreed to in Basel will be closer to 1% than 3% and largely, if not entirely, composed of convertible capital instruments.
• The Vickers commission’s second big proposal is to have banks ringfence their retail arms. Large universal banks, which combine retail and investment banking, would be allowed to keep playing in the capital markets. They would, however, have to set aside enough capital in separate pools to be sure that either part of the bank could survive without the other.
• The proposals are far less radical than some banks may have feared. They will probably also not cost that much to implement. Industry estimates put the cost of ringfencing at about £5 billion ($8 billion) a year, mainly because funding costs of the separate parts will rise as each will be less diversified than the whole. These estimates are probably overstated. Moreover, the real impact of the commission’s proposals is that they may help to bring about a measure of transparency and market discipline to bank funding.
• Because of its reasonableness, the Vickers commission’s recommendations will be difficult to dismiss. A final report is due in September.

the reformation

• An  disjoint attempt made by IMF to refine it’s thinking on capital control. Foreign capital fled the emerging world in the throes of the economic crisis. Now, lured by their better growth prospects and repelled by rich countries’ low interest rates, money has gushed back into countries like Brazil, Peru, South Africa and Turkey. Paulo Nogueira Batista, Brazil’s executive director at the fund, calls it an “international monetary tsunami”.
• Usually emerging markets welcome foreign capital, which can help finance much-needed investment. But the recent surge has them worried, partly because of its speed and fears of an equally rapid reversal. The IMF reckons that gross inflows have risen to 6% of emerging-world GDP in about a quarter of the time taken for a similar spike before the crisis. Policymakers also fear that this flood of capital could lead to asset-price bubbles and overvalued currencies. Many have implemented measures to stem the tide, from Brazil’s tax on portfolio inflows to Peru’s higher charge on non-residents’ purchases of central-bank paper.
• Such policies—particularly capital controls that apply specifically to foreign investors or treat them differently from nationals—have long been controversial. Countries that use them are often accused of doing so to keep their currencies artificially undervalued. Critics reckon that with their prospects improving emerging markets should just let their currencies rise. But emerging economies retort that the reason capital is flooding their way may have less to do with their long-term prospects than with temporary factors such as unusually loose rich-world monetary policy, over which they have no control. Adding to the confusion is the absence of any internationally accepted guidelines about what is acceptable when it comes to managing capital flows.
• The IMF is the natural arbiter of such issues. It has already stepped back a little from its historical antipathy to capital controls. In February 2010 a research paper by a team of economists at the fund led by Jonathan Ostry cautiously endorsed the use of controls in situations where a country facing a capital surge had a currency that was appropriately valued, had already built up enough reserves and had no further room to tighten fiscal policy. The fund now reckons these conditions are not all that rare. It finds that 9 out of 39 emerging markets studied would have been justified, as of late 2010, in resorting to such controls because they had exhausted other options. There is a need, therefore, for more clarity on which measures are justified, and when.
• On April 5th the IMF released two documents designed to achieve just that. The  first, a “framework” for policy advice that is approved by the fund’s board, lays out the institution’s official thinking. The other, by Mr Ostry and his colleagues, provides the analytical backing for the framework paper and explains the conditions under which various kinds of policy instruments might help manage capital flows. The two papers aim to ensure that the advice the IMF gives member countries is consistent. But several curious differences between them suggest that the fund’s own thinking on managing capital flows is far from settled. In at least two respects the new paper by Mr Ostry’s team marks a further evolution of the fund’s position on capital controls. But the board-endorsed policy framework seems less inclined to budge.
• Earlier IMF papers emphasised that capital controls should be imposed only in the face of temporary surges in inflows, arguing that the exchange rate should adjust when it came to permanent shocks. But Mr Ostry’s team now points out that persistent inflows might be even more dangerous in terms of asset-price bubbles. It concedes that controls may be useful to target inflows that are expected to endure, because of the threat to financial stability. The framework paper is much more conservative, arguing that capital-flow measures “are most appropriate to handle inflows driven by temporary or cyclical factors”.
• The IMF has historically been more favourably disposed towards “prudential” measures, which are designed to stop inflows from destabilising financial systems and do not explicitly discriminate between residents and foreigners, than towards capital controls, which erect barriers designed to stop the exchange rate from rising. Mr Ostry and his colleagues point out that some prudential measures distinguish between local-currency and foreign-currency transactions. This makes them more like capital controls since most foreign-currency liabilities are likely to be owed to foreigners. It may thus make sense to treat such prudential measures and capital controls similarly. The framework paper, however, maintains that countries should “give precedence to capital-flow measures that do not discriminate on the basis of residency (such as currency-based prudential measures)” over those that do. The disconnect is glaring and confusing.
• The fund’s attempts to flesh out what countries threatened by a surge of capital should do come up against a more fundamental problem, too. Many emerging economies argue that the IMF is focusing on the wrong players. Mr Nogueira Batista told a Brazilian newspaper that he objected to “countries that adopt ultra-expansive monetary policy to get over the crisis [and] provoke an expansion of liquidity on a global scale”, and which then insist on guidelines about how recipients should behave. (Indeed, emerging economies were firmly opposed to the fund’s original plan to refer to what is now a “framework” for policy advice as the more prescriptive-sounding “guidelines”.) The fund acknowledges that these “push factors” are important, and should be addressed. Its own analysis suggests that American interest rates have a larger effect on flows to emerging economies than those economies’ own growth performance.
• A fund insider says that negotiations around the new framework on capital-flow measures were “the most contentious that any staffer can remember”. It shows.