growth Vs GDP per head

• Growth tends to slow when GDP per head reaches a certain threshold. China is getting close.The economic crisis may have been debilitating for the rich world but for emerging markets it has been closer to a triumph. In 2010 China overtook a limping Japan as the world’s second-largest economy. It looks sets to catch America within a decade or two. India and Brazil are growing rapidly. The past few years have reinforced the suspicion of many that the story of the century will be the inexorable rise of emerging economies. If projections of future growth look rosy for emerging markets, however, history counsels caution. The post-war period is rich in examples of blistering catch-up growth. But at some point growth starts to disappoint. Gaining ground on the leaders is far easier than overtaking them.
• Rapid growth is initially easy because the leader has already trodden a clear path. Developing countries can borrow existing technologies from countries that have already become rich. Advanced economies may be stuck with obsolete infrastructure; laggards can skip right to the shiniest and best. Labour productivity soars as poor economies shift workers from agriculture to a growing manufacturing sector. And rapid income growth among young workers boosts savings and fuels investment.
• But the more an emerging economy resembles the leaders, the harder it is to sustain the pace. As the stock of borrowable ideas runs low, the developing economy must begin innovating for itself. The supply of cheap agricultural labour dries up and a rising number of workers take jobs in the service sector, where productivity improvements are more difficult to achieve. The moment of convergence with the leaders, which once seemed within easy reach, retreats into the future. Growth rates may slow, as they did in the case of western Europe and the Asian tigers, or they may falter, as in Latin America in the 1990s.
• The world’s reliance on emerging markets as engines of growth lends urgency to the question of just when this “middle-income trap” is sprung. In a new paper* Barry Eichengreen of the University of California, Berkeley, Donghyun Park of the Asian Development Bank and Kwanho Shin of Korea University examine the economic record since 1957 in an attempt to identify potential warning-signs. The authors focus on countries whose GDP per head on a purchasing-power-parity (PPP) basis grew by more than 3.5% a year for seven years, and then suffered a sharp slowdown in which growth dipped by two percentage points or more. They ignore slowdowns that occur when GDP per head is still below $10,000 on a PPP basis, limiting the sample to countries enjoying sustained catch-up growth. What emerges is an estimate of a critical threshold: on average, growth slowdowns occur when per-head GDP reaches around $16,740 at PPP. The average growth rate then drops from 5.6% a year to 2.1%.
• This estimate passes the smell test of history. In the 1970s growth rates in western Europe and Japan cooled off at approximately the $16,740 threshold. Singapore’s early-1980s slowdown matches the model, as does the experience of South Korea and Taiwan in the late 1990s. As these examples indicate, a deceleration need not precipitate disaster. Growth often continues and may accelerate again; the authors identify a number of cases in which a slowdown proceeds in steps. Japan’s initial boom lost steam in the early 1970s, but its economy continued to grow faster than other rich nations until its 1990s blow-up.
• In the right circumstances the good times may be prolonged, allowing an economy to reach a higher income level before the inevitable slowdown. When America passed the threshold it was the world leader and was able to keep growing rapidly so long as its own innovative prowess allowed. Britain’s experience indicates economic liberalisation or a fortunate turn of the business cycle may also prevent the threshold from binding at once.
• Openness to trade appears to be a potent stimulant: the authors attribute the outperformance of Hong Kong and Singapore to this effect. Lifting consumption to just over 60% of GDP is useful, as is a low and stable rate of inflation. Neither financial openness nor changes of political regime seem to matter much, but a large ratio of workers to dependents reduces the odds of a slowdown. An undervalued exchange rate, on the other hand, appears to contribute to a higher probability of a slowdown. The reason for this is not clear but the authors suggest that undervaluation could lead countries to neglect their innovative capacity, or may contribute to imbalances that choke off a boom.
• The authors are careful to say that there is no iron law of slowdowns. Even so, their analysis is unlikely to cheer the leadership in Beijing. China’s torrid growth puts it on course to hit the $16,740 GDP-per-head threshold by 2015, well ahead of the likes of Brazil and India. Given the Chinese economy’s long list of risk factors—including an older population, low levels of consumption and a substantially undervalued currency—the authors suggest that the odds of a slowdown are over 70%.
• It is hazardous to extend any analysis to a country as unique as China. The authors acknowledge that rapid development could shift inland, where millions of workers have yet to move into manufacturing, while the coastal cities nurture an ability to innovate. The IMF forecasts real GDP growth rates above 9% through to 2016; a slowdown to 7-8% does not sound that scary. But past experience indicates that slowdowns are frequently accompanied by crises. In East Asia in the late 1990s it became clear that investments which made sense at growth rates of 7%, say, did not at expansion rates of 5%. Political systems may prove similarly vulnerable: it has been many years since China has to deal with an annual growth rate below 7%. Structural reforms can help to cushion the effects of a slowdown. It would be wise for China to pursue such reforms during fat years rather than the leaner ones that will, eventually, come

struggle of sense to get out of negative bias

• The markets continue to trade volatile in the negative terrain, but above their intraday lows. At 11:05 a.m., the Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex was at 19,555.70, down 56.50 points or 0.29% from the previous close, while the National Stock Exchange’s Nifty was at 5,874.30, down 17.45 points or 0.3%.
• Indian shares eased a tad on Thursday as investors were in consolidation mode after a big rally in March, while underlying sentiment remained upbeat following a spurt in foreign fund buying.
• Maruti was trading down 1.3 percent at 1,277.95 rupees after the company said it would recall 13,157 diesel engine cars.
• Foreign funds have pumped around $2.8 billion into equities since the start of March, after being net sellers in the first two months, on hopes a market correction made the market attractive given economic growth was still robust.
• Global demand for dairy products will jump in the next decade, led by surging consumption in China and India, according to Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd, the world’s largest exporter.
• Oil dropped from the highest in 30 months in New York after China raised domestic fuel prices and U.S. stockpiles climbed, stoking speculation demand may falter in the world’s biggest energy users.
• Gold declined on speculation that investors are locking in gains after the price rose to a record earlier, and as central bank efforts to combat inflation curbed demand for precious metals.
• Asian stocks rose as the yen weakened against all of its most-traded currencies and after gold prices rose to a record for a second day in New York on demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation.
• Indian imports of power-station coal rose by 33% to 65.7 million metric tons in the year ending March 2011 from 49.4 million a year earlier, India Coal Market Watch said, citing estimates based on port data.
• World trade will grow faster than the 7 percent long-term average rate for a second successive year in 2011 but fall short of last year’s dramatic rebound, the World Trade Organisation is likely to forecast on Thursday.
• China may be heading for a pause in its half-year cycle of monetary tightening, raising interest rates just once more this year as its moves so far start to slow inflation and economic activity.
• The U.S. economy remains too fragile for the Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates, the president of the Atlanta Fed, Dennis Lockhart, said on Wednesday.
• Portugal’s decision to seek international aid removes a cloud of uncertainty over the euro zone and has a good chance of ending the spread of debt market crises to fresh countries in the region.
• Chinese economy probably grew less quickly in the first quarter of this year than the final quarter of 2010, dovetailing with the government’s efforts to shift more emphasis to the quality rather than the pace of growth.
• Portugal’s caretaker government, fighting to avoid a bailout, said on Wednesday a political crisis had caused “irreparable damage” after borrowing costs rocketed as it sold a billion euros in short-term debt.
• The euro will steadily lose the recent ground it has gained against the dollar in the coming year as the U.S. Federal Reserve plays catch-up to the European Central Bank’s interest rate hikes, a Reuters poll found.
• India’s record grains output in 2011 may prompt the government to allow wheat exports, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said on Wednesday, boosting the prospect of overseas sales of the grain from the world’s second – biggest producer.
• Some of Asia’s emerging economies are showing signs of overheating, underscoring the need for further policy tightening and more flexible foreign exchange rates to tackle growing inflationary pressures, the Asian Development Bank said on Wednesday.
• U.S. congressional negotiators on Wednesday raced against a looming deadline to agree on billions of dollars in spending cuts and find a budget deal that keeps the federal government operating beyond Friday.
• Europe has opened flat and is trading mixed. The Indian market is now in the green but still in flat territory with the heavyweights proving to be a drag in today’s trade. Sensex is trading at 19624, up 12 points from its previous close, and Nifty is at 5896, up 4 points.( 01:23 pm,india).
• Leading India Inc representatives today made a strong plea to the Reserve Bank to review its rate tightening policy, saying the high cost of credit is having an adverse impact on growth.
• Cairn Energy and Vedanta Resources on Thursday extended the deadline for a $9.6 billion deal for Cairn’s India assets, reflecting optimism the deal will get done a day after the government deferred a decision. Both companies have extended the date by which all conditions must be completed or waived to 20 May 2011 to accommodate the completion of the open offer for Cairn India shares, Cairn Energy said in a statement.
• Food inflation fell to 9.18 per cent for the week ended March 26, the lowest level in almost four months, on the back of a decline in the prices of pulses.
• The European Central Bank is poised to raise interest rates from a record low 1.0 percent on Thursday and more is likely to follow but, fearful of heaping more pain on the euro zone’s stragglers, it will give few clues about when the next move will come.
• Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL), the country’s largest car maker, on Wednesday said it wouldrecall 13,157 diesel cars manufactured between November 13 and December 4, 2010, to examine a possible faulty engine part.
• The foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were net buyers of Rs 150.85 crore in futures and options segment on Wednesday.According to the data released by the NSE, FIIs were net sellers of index futures to the tune of Rs 117.33 crore, while they sold index options worth Rs 587.96 crore.They were net sellers of stock futures to the tune of Rs 305.01 crore and sold stock options worth Rs 14.77 crore.
• Oil producing countries that have surplus production capacity provided international oil companies with additional quantities of crude, UAE Energy Minister Mohammed bin Dha’en Al Hameli has said.Addressing the 12th International Oil Summit in Paris on Wednesday, Al Hameli said that OPEC members are not the only producers that are providing additional supplies, noting that non-OPEC supplies were expected to reach 500,000 barrels a day this year.
• The Union government has slapped an excise duty of 10% on jute products that constitute about 80% of the Rs 6,000 crore industry and threatens to cripple the fate of 2.5 lakh workers.