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Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label inflation. Show all posts

Saturday, April 30, 2011

India v China

Anthropologist Artificer thinks it could bump in 2013; the Mankind Deposit thinks it power materialize close year. Umteen pundits individual speculated roughly when India's development might outpace China's. But the IMF's Humankind Efficient Mindset says it's already happened-without fret, fanfare or expression. Crockery grew by 10.3% ending gathering; India by 10.4%. How can that be?
  There are two idiosyncrasies in the way Bharat typically reports its GDP figures. It calculates ontogeny for the fiscal year, not the calendar assemblage. Solon primal, it reports its GDP "at cipher cost". That substance it adds up all the income attained (by party, capital and remaining "factors of production") in the education of producing the country's goods and services. By that judge, its GDP grew by 8.6% in 2010.
  But opposite countries, including Prc, normally study their GDP "by expenditure", adding up all the spending on domestically produced squeeze. In explanation, depletion should equal to income. But taxes and subsidies get in the way.
  A income tax adds to the quantity you hit to spend on a unspoiled, boosting measures of GDP by expenditure. A subsidy has the opposite signification. In Bharat net winding taxes seem to individual risen from 7.5% of product in 2009 to 9.2% in 2010. That was enough to ascent India's growth by spending to 10.36% in 2010, full 0.06 proportionality points faster than China's.
  Few loggers screw suggested the 10.4% illustration is an artifact of inflation or replace rates. Not so. GDP was metrical in rupees, not dollars, at the prices prevailing in the 2004-05 financial twelvemonth. Nor is the personage an IMF mixture. It drew its aggregation from India's Middle Statistics Duty (CSO), which estimates GDP using both methods. The country's statisticians raise GDP by bourgeois expenditure because it is less prone to translation. The CSO still finds it easier to belt production in farms, factories and offices than to cross consumer payment or finance.
  As India struggles to guess its GDP the way most different countries do, Prc has begun to interrogation its ontogeny value the way Earth does (scrutiny one quarter's GDP with the previous tail, rather than the syntactical kill of the early twelvemonth). So Dishware grew by 9.7% in the gathering to the prototype lodge under its old method of news, but by fair 2.1%, or 8.7% at an annualized place, under the new methodology. That is the considerate of stride India mightiness wellspring grownup or beat, withal you bar it.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

metals, banks will boost sensex further

  • Japan’s government kept its assessment of the economy unchanged in a monthly report on Friday but warned of increasing downside risks to growth such as the strong yen and slowing overseas growth.
  • China’s imports leapt in August, boding well for a strengthening of domestic demand in an economy that has become a major driver of global growth.
  • Stocks rose and bonds fell on Thursday after stronger-than-expected U.S. data on jobless benefits and trade, raising hopes the tepid economic recovery would accelerate.
  • The Basel Committee of central bank and regulatory officials is likely to complete talks on new Basel III capital standards by Sunday or Monday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said on Thursday.
  • There are no signs of a slowdown in India’s industrial output growth, senior finance ministry adviser Kaushik Basu said on Thursday.
  • India, the world’s top consumer of sugar, has asked millers to apply for exports of the sweetener against imports of raws in the past, trade and government officials said on Thursday.
  • Japan and India agreed on a free trade deal on Thursday which Tokyo said would lead to a 10-fold jump in trade flows as it eyes the fast-growing economy as a low-cost production centre and a market for exports.
  • High inflation in India is expected to ease in coming months, reducing pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to raise interest rates further.
  • India’s wholesale price index in August probably rose 9.6 percent from a year earlier, easing from a rise of 9.97 percent in July. Forecasts from 15 economists ranged from 9.36 percent to 9.84 percent.
  • Equity funds posted the biggest weekly inflows in more than a month in early September, reflecting some comfort with the global economic outlook, though fresh cash allocations showed the limits of risk taking, EPFR Global data showed on Friday.
  • Asian stocks rose to a four-month high on Friday as some investors were inspired by positive U.S. and Japanese economic data to pick out bargains, with the shift to riskier assets weighing on the yen.
  • World stocks kicked off September on a stronger note on Wednesday as data showed a manufacturing rebound in China and stronger-than-expected growth in Australia, while the yen held near recent 15-year peaks against the dollar.
  •  India’s tax department has jurisdiction over tax bills in cross-border mergers, a court ruled, dismissing a petition by Vodafone(VOD.L) and setting a precedent for foreign firms looking to buy into Indian companies.
  • U.S. President Barack Obama stood firm on Thursday in opposition to a Republican push to extend Bush-era tax cuts for the rich but stopped short of threatening to veto such a measure if passed by Congress.
  • Advice may be nice, but backing it up with balance sheet can be key to winning M&A business for investment banks in India.
  • Switzerland remains the world’s most competitive economy, while India dropped two places to 51, according to the World Economic Forum’s annual rankings issued on Thursday.

Friday, March 11, 2011

inside china

  • China has not seen a surge in “ hot money“  ( Money that flows regularly between financial markets as investors attempt to ensure they get the highest short-term interest rates possible. Hot money will flow from low interest rate yielding countries into higher interest rates countries by investors looking to make the highest return. These financial transfers could affect the exchange rate if the sum is high enough and can therefore impact the balance of payments),
    coming into the country, the country’s foreign exchange regulator said on Thursday, despite the loose monetary policy in the US that Beijing has sometimes blamed for causing destablising capital inflows.
  • A net $35.5bn of hot money, illegal speculative capital, entered the country last year, which was “ant-like” in comparison to the size of the economy, the   State Administration of Foreign Exchange said.
  • The massive build-up in China’s foreign exchange reserves over the last five years, which are now by far the world’s largest at $2,850bn, has encouraged many analysts to speculate that large flows of overseas money were evading the country’s strict capital controls and finding their way into the local property and stock markets.
  • As a result, a detailed research conducted to try and calculate the real level of hot money and found that it was relatively limited. “We have not found evidence of any large-scale capital inflows co-ordinated by any established financial institution,” the regulator said.
  • On average over the last decade, hot money inflows were $28.9bn a year, equivalent to around 9 per cent of the increase in the country’s foreign exchange reserves. This compares to an economy now with nominal GDP of around $5,700bn and where new loans created last year reached Rmb 8,000bn.
  • The argument that cross-border capital flows are driving domestic stock market performance lacks evidence in the data,” said in a report.
  • Given that Safe is the body charged with policing the country’s capital controls, it has a vested interest in showing that they are not being easily evaded by investors.
  • However, the figures from the regulator will make it harder for Beijing to suggest that the  inflationary pressures in the chinese economy are the result of the build-up in liquidity in the international financial system caused by the US Federal Reserve policy of quantitative easing.
  • In the run-up to the G20 summit in South Korea last November, when it looked that China might come under attack for artificially depressing the value of the renminbi, Beijing joined several other governments in accusing the US Fed of causing huge capital flows and inflation in the developing world.
  • Zhu Guangyao, a deputy finance minister, said that the Fed “did not think about the impact of excessive liquidity on emerging markets by having launched a second round of quantitative easing at this time”.
  • “If you look at the global economy, there are many issues that merit more attention – for example, the question of quantitative easing,” said deputy foreign minister Cui Tiankai, when asked about US proposals to limit current account surpluses.
  • Inflation in China increased to 4.9 per cent last month, which was not as large a rise as had been expected, but was still well over the 4 per cent target the government has set for this year. While some economists believe the current bout of inflation is the result of short-term problems in food production, some others believe it has been caused by the huge expansion in credit that the Chinese authorities have engineered over the last two years to help the economy ride out the global financial crisis.

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

sensex rose 623 points, measures proposed in the Union Budget 2011-12 would attract foreign inflows

  • The Sensex closed at 18475 (provisional), up 651 points from its previous close, and Nifty closed at 5532 (provisional), up 199 points.
  • The markets registered robust growth today with all sectoral indices closing in the green. Auto was the biggest gainer of today’s trade followed by capital goods, banking and realty.
  • Indian shares provisionally rose 0.7 percent on Monday, after the annual budget announced incentives for private investment in infrastructure.
  • Indian shares were up more than 1 percent in early trade on Tuesday tracking firm Asian equities, and after the finance minister said he expects the economy to grow by nearly 9 percent in the next fiscal year.
  • Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Monday presented to parliament the budget for the coming financial year beginning in April.
Following are the highlights of the budget:
BORROWING
* Gross market borrowing for 2011-12 seen at 4.17 trillion rupees.
* Net market borrowing for 2011-12 seen at 3.43 trillion rupees.
* Revised gross market borrowing for 2010-11 at 4.47 trillion rupees.
FISCAL DEFICIT
* Fiscal deficit seen at 5.1 percent of GDP in 2010-11
* Fiscal deficit seen at 4.6 percent of GDP in 2011-12
* Fiscal deficit seen at 3.5 percent of GDP in 2013-14
SPENDING
* Total expenditure in 2011-12 seen at 12.58 trillion rupees.
* Plan expenditure seen at 4.41 trillion rupees in 2011-12, up 18.3 percent.
REVENUE
* Gross tax receipts seen at 9.32 trillion rupees in 2011-12.
* Corporate tax receipts seen at 3.6 trillion rupees in 2011-12.
* Tax-to-GDP ratio seen at 10.4 percent in 2011-12; seen at 10.8 percent in 2012-13.
* Customs revenue seen at 1.52 trillion rupees in 2011-12.
* Factory gate duties seen at 1.64 trillion rupees in 2011-12.
* Non-tax revenue seen at 1.25 trillion rupees in 2011-12.
* Service tax receipts seen at 820 billion rupees in 2011-12.
* Revenue gain from indirect tax proposals seen at 113 billion rupees in 2011-12.
* Service tax proposals to result in net revenue gain of 40 billion rupees in 2011-12.
SUBSIDIES
* Subsidy bill in 2011-12 seen at 1.44 trillion rupees.
* Food subsidy bill in 2011-12 seen at 605.7 billion rupees.
* Revised food subsidy bill for 2010-11 at 606 billion rupees.
* Fertiliser subsidy bill in 2011-12 seen at 500 billion rupees.
* Revised fertiliser subsidy bill for 2010-11 at 550 billion rupees.
* Petroleum subsidy bill in 2011-12 seen at 236.4 billion rupees.
* Revised petroleum subsidy bill in 2010-11 at 384 billion rupees.
* State-run oil retailers to be provided with 200 billion rupee cash subsidy in 2011-12.
GROWTH, INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
* Inflation seen at 5 percent in 2011-12.
* Economy expected to grow at 9 percent in 2012, plus or minus 0.25 percent.
TAXES
* Standard rate of excise duty held at 10 percent.
* Service tax rate kept at 10 percent.
* To widen scope of service tax.
* To raise minimum alternate tax to 18.5 percent from 18 percent.
* Iron ore export duty raised to 20 percent.
* Personal income tax exemption limit raised to 180,000 rupees.
* To reduce surcharge on domestic companies to 5 percent.
DISINVESTMENT
* Disinvestment in 2011-12 seen at 400 billion rupees.
POLICY REFORMS
* Foreign direct investment policy to be liberalised further in 2011-12.
* To create infrastructure debt funds.
* To boost infrastructure growth with tax-free bonds of 300 billion rupees.
* Raised foreign institutional investor limit in 5-year corporate bonds for investment in infrastructure by $20 billion.
* Food security bill to be introduced this year.
* To permit Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) registered mutual funds to access subscriptions from foreign investments.
* Public debt bill to be introduced in parliament soon.
SECTOR SPENDING
* To allocate more than 1.64 trillion rupees to defence sector in 2011-12.
* Corpus of rural infrastructure development fund raised to 180 billion rupees in 2011-12.
* To provide 201.5 billion rupees capital infusion in state-run banks in 2011-12.
* To allocate 520.5 billion rupees for the education sector.
* To raise health sector allocation to 267.6 billion rupees.
AGRICULTURE
* To focus on removal of supply bottlenecks in the food sector in 2011-12.
* To raise target of credit flow to agriculture sector to 4.75 trillion rupees.
* Gives 3 percent interest subsidy to farmers in 2011-12.
* Cold storage chains to be given infrastructure status.
* Capitalisation of National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) of 30 billion rupees in a phased manner.
* To provide 3 billion rupees for 60,000 hectares under palm oil plantation.
* Actively considering new fertiliser policy for urea.
FINANCE MINISTER ON THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
* “Fiscal consolidation has been impressive. This year has also seen significant progress in those critical institutional reforms that will pave the way for double digit growth in the near future.”
* “At times the biggest reforms are not the ones that make headlines, but the ones concerned with details of governance which affect the everyday life of aam aadmi (common man). In preparing this year’s budget, I have been deeply conscious of this fact.”
* Food inflation remains a concern.
* Current account deficit situation poses some concern.
* Must ensure that private investment is sustained.
* “The economy has shown remarkable resilience.”
FINANCE MINISTER ON GOVERNANCE
* “Certain events in the past few months may have created an impression of drift in governance and a gap in public accountability … such an impression is misplaced.”
* Corruption is a problem, must fight it collectively.
  • ASSOCHAM cheers budget proposals aimed at reducing fiscal deficit. Apex chamber ASSOCHAM described the proposals of Union Budget for 2011-12 as positive and encouraging which attempt at reducing the fiscal deficit down to 5.1 per cent from the earlier estimate of 5.6 per cent for the current fiscal year and 4.6 per cent for the next.
  • NASSCOM today expressed its disappointment on the Union Budget Proposals 2011-12 that chartered a roadmap on sustaining a high growth trajectory for the country, but missed the relevant thrust for business to enable this growth.MAT imposed on SEZ; 10A/10B tax incentives withdrawn.Policies announced for service tax refunds; transfer pricing – need to ensure implementation.
  • The three key macroeconomic concerns before Union Budget 2011-12 were high inflation, high current account deficit (CAD), and fiscal consolidation. Additionally, there was an expectation that the government would restart the reform process. The Budget has made an attempt to address all these issues, albeit through small steps. Despite the strong performance of the economy in 2010-11, the outlook for 2011-12 is clouded by stubborn and persistently high inflation, and rising external risks. The Budget factors in a GDP growth target of 9 per cent, which is on the optimistic side. CRISIL expects GDP growth to moderate to 8.3 per cent in 2011-12.